During These Uncertain Times, Should Businesses Be Concerned?

In March, consumer confidence slipped for the fourth month in a row, with expectations around personal income, job stability, and business conditions reaching their lowest point in over a decade. While the decline isn't as dramatic as recent stock market drops, it’s still raising eyebrows among economists and marketers alike. But here’s the thing: just because people are feeling uneasy doesn’t always mean they’ll stop spending. In fact, recent history has shown the opposite.

When Confidence Was Low, Spending Stayed High

Take a look back at 2023 and 2024. Inflation was running hot, and consumers were clearly stressed. Yet spending didn’t dry up. Instead, shoppers got smarter. They switched to store brands, jumped on discounts, and made every dollar count—but they kept the economy moving.

That’s no small thing, considering consumer spending makes up around 70% of the U.S. GDP. Even with all the talk of “vibecessions”—a term used to describe when consumer sentiment drops despite a strong economy—money was still flowing.

What Makes 2025 Feel Different?

This year, the outlook feels murkier. While past uncertainty mostly hit everyday shoppers, now we’re seeing more caution from key decision-makers—the ones who really control the purse strings in households and businesses.

That hesitation might start to impact actual spending patterns in a more significant way, especially if job security or wages start to wobble. The concern isn’t just about feelings anymore—it’s about whether those feelings will finally start showing up in the numbers.

Why Marketers Should Watch Actions Over Attitudes

For brands and businesses, the lesson here is simple: don’t panic over poor sentiment alone. Watch what people are actually doing, not just what they’re saying. Buying behavior often tells a more reliable story than confidence surveys ever could.

As 2025 unfolds, keeping a pulse on both emotional and economic indicators will be key. Because even if consumers are feeling the pressure, history shows they’re often more resilient than they seem.

Cate Bender, the author, is Project Coordinator of Marketing Keys